Providing a System Dynamics Model to Manage Natural Gas Consumption in Yazd Province
Subject Areas :
Shahrzad Charkhkar
1
,
Seyyed Habibollah Mirghfoori
2
*
,
Elahe Hosseini
3
1 - Master of industrial Management, Faculty of Economics, Management & Accounting, Yazd University, Yazd,Iran
2 - Associate Professor, Faculty of Economics, Management & Accounting, Yazd University, Yazd,Iran
3 - Yazd university- Shiraz university
Keywords: Energy Planning, Natural Gas, Gas Consumption Management, System Dynamics,
Abstract :
In recent years, the development of urbanization and industrialization has increased energy consumption. This is a serious threat to environmental pollution. In addition, natural gas in terms of cost-effectiveness, abundant gas reserves in Iran, lower cost of extraction, refining, processing and transmission compared to oil, durability and usability of natural gas reserves for the next three centuries, the expansion of the gas supply network. There are obvious benefits in the country In such circumstances, natural gas as an important category of low carbon and clean energy has attracted more attention. The growing demand for global energy carriers, restrictions on the production and supply of oil and the need to replace clean energy carriers with it, has opened a wide horizon for the energy carrier of natural gas and its derivatives as a clean fuel worldwide. On the other hand, the complexity of production and supply of natural gas and its products and the lack of an optimal pattern of energy consumption are among the important challenges of energy decision makers. In this research, modeling and simulation of natural gas consumption in Yazd province has been done. For this purpose, using the system dynamics approach, the variables affecting consumption were identified and causally identified in the form of feedback loops. After the initial simulation of the model, according to the current situation, the scenario is discussed. As a result of the simulation, the proposed solutions are presented according to each scenario.
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