Presenting the innovative supply chain model of the oil industry under conditions of uncertainty
Subject Areas :
Ali Kamaei
1
,
Abotorab Alirezaee
2
*
,
ghanbar abbaspur esfsdsn
3
,
ashraf shaimansori
4
1 - Department of management, South Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.
2 - Associate Professor, Department of Industrial Management, Faculty of Management, South Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
3 - University of Tehran
4 - Azad University, South Tehran branch
Keywords: Supply chain, oil, uncertainty, fuzzy Delphi, fuzzy Dimetal, thematic analysis,
Abstract :
In this research, the supply chain management of the oil industry under conditions of uncertainty was examined. The research method is mixed (qualitative-quantitative). The qualitative part of the research was done with thematic analysis method, and in this part, in order to complete the information, the opinions of 16 professors, experts and experts in the field of oil and supply chain were used by purposeful sampling and until theoretical saturation was reached. In the quantitative phase, two fuzzy Delphi and Fuzzy Dimtel approaches were used to accept or reject uncertainty indicators and identify cause and effect relationships between them. Based on the results of the qualitative phase of the research, the oil supply chain includes six main stages of extraction and production, transportation, refining, distribution, storage and final distribution. In each of these stages, a number of sub-stages and 38 cases of uncertainty were identified. Based on the results of the quantitative part of the research, all 38 cases of uncertainty were confirmed from the point of view of experts in the fuzzy Delphi method. Based on the fuzzy Dimetal method, the cause and effect relationships of the uncertainties in the system were evaluated. The results of the quantitative section show that extraction and production have the greatest influence on the supply chain, and transportation, refining, distribution, storage and final distribution are in the next levels of influence. At the end, a model for uncertainties, their explanation and management solutions are provided.
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