طراحی و تدوین مدل تصمیم گیری رفتاری سرمایه گذاران با توجه نقش آمیخته بازاریابی مالی با استفاده از مدلسازی معادلات ساختاری
محورهای موضوعی :
حمید رضا شکری زاده
1
(دانشگاه یزد)
جمال برزگری خانقاه
2
(دانشگاه یزد)
ججت الله صادقی
3
(دانشگاه یزد)
کلید واژه: تصمیمگیری آمیخه بازاریابی مالی(7p) تورش عاطفی رفتار سرمایه‌گذاران تورش شناختی,
چکیده مقاله :
بازارهاي سرمايه نقش مهمي در اقتصاد دارند، زيرا وجوه نقد افرادي كه توان استفاده از وجوه خود را ندارند، به كساني كه اين توانايي را دارند، هدايت مي كنند. طبيعتا عملكرد خوب اين بازارها عامل كليدي در تامين رشد اقتصادي خواهد بود، لذا اگر بازارهاي سرمايه كارآ باشند، توسعه اقتصادي تحقق مي‌يابد. از سوي ديگر بدليل تصميم گيري غيرمنطقي سرمایه‌گذاران در بازار سرمايه خطاهاي سيستماتيك رخ داده و همين مساله موجب عدم كارآيي بازار مي‌شود.تحقیق حاضر در صدد است تا تاثیر آمیخته بازاریابی مالی را بر رابطه بین تورشهای رفتاری و تصمیمگیری سرمایه گذاران را مورد بررسی قرار دهد. روش تحقیق حاضر از نظر هدف کاربردی و از حیث روش انجام و گردآوری داده‌ها توصیفی پیمایشی می باشد. جامعه آماری سرمايهگذاران حقیقی در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران می‌باشند که 422 پرسشنامه توزیع شد که با حذف پرسشنامه‌هاي ناقص در نهایت 391 پرسشنامه جهت تجزیه و تحلیل آماري استفاده گردید. داده های حاصل با نرم افزارهای SmartPLS و LISREL مورد تجزیه و تحلیل قرار گرفت. نتایج حاکی از آن است که عوامل آمیخته بازاریابی مالی(7p) بر رابطه بین تورشهای عاطفی و تصمیم گیری سرمایه گذاران بیشتر از تورشهای شناختی تاثیر گذارند.و دوعامل افراد آموزش دیده و ترفیع بیشترین تاثیر را دارند.
Capital markets play an important role in the economy, because the cash flow of people who can not use their funds leads to those who are capable of it. Naturally, the good performance of these markets will be a key factor in ensuring economic growth, so if capital markets are efficient, economic development will be realized. On the other hand, because of the irrational decision making of investors in the capital market, systematic errors have occurred and this leads to market failure. The present study seeks to examine the impact of the financial marketing mix(7p) on the relationship between behavioral bourgeois and investor decision making. The method of this research is applied to the purpose of the research and the method of collecting and collecting data is descriptive survey. The statistical population is real investors in Tehran Stock Exchange. 422 questionnaires were distributed. By eliminating incomplete questionnaires, 391 questionnaires were used for statistical analysis. The data was analyzed using SmartPLS and LISREL software. The results indicate that the financial marketing mix (7 p) affects the relationship between emotional and decision-making factors of investors more than cognitive biases. The two sides of the trained and promoted people have the most impact.
1. احمدي، موسی؛ یدالله زاده طبري، ناصرعلی و طبري، حنانه ( 1389 ). تأثیر نوسانات تولیدي بخشهاي اقتصادي بر سرمایه‌گذاري در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران، فصلنامه‌ي مطالعات کمی در مدیریت.
2. اسلامی بیدگلی، غلامرضا، شهریاري، سارا،(1386). "بررسی و آزمون رفتاري توده وار سرمایه گذاران با استفاده از انحرافات بازده سهام از بازده کل بازار در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران طی سالهاي1380 تا 138 ". بررسیهاي حسابداري و حسابرسی، شماره 49 .
3. انصاري رناني، قاسم و ناصحي فر، وحيد ( 1386 ). "الگوي كارآمد بازاريابي خدمات مالي در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران"، مطالعات مديريت، شماره 56 صفحه 123.
4. پمپین، میشل ام، دانش مالی رفتاري و مدیریت دارایی، ترجمه بدري، احمد، شرکت انتشارات . کیهان، چاپ اول، شهریور 1388.
5. رهنمای رودپشتی، فریدون، ریاحی، حامد تاجمیر(1393). مدلسازی تأثیر تورشهای رفتاری بر رکود بازار سرمایه براساس رویکرد تفسیری– ساختاری (ISM) ، مجله مهندسی مالی و مدیریت اوراق بهادار، مقاله 6، دوره 5، شماره 19، تابستان 1393، صفحه 111-130
6. رهنماي رودپشتی، فریدون؛ زندیه، وحید، (1391). مالی رفتاري و مالی عصبی (پارادایم نوین مالی از تئوري تا عمل)، انتشارات دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، چاپ اول.
7. ستایش، محمدحسین و کافا شمس الدینی، (1395)، "بررسی رابطه ب ین گرایش احساسی سرمایه گذاران و قیمت سهام شرکتهای پذیرفته‌شده در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران "، پیشرفت های حسابداری دانشگاه شیراز، شماره 1، صص 619 671.
8. سعيدي، علي. و فرهانيان، سيدمحمد جواد. ( 1390 ). مباني اقتصادي و مالي رفتاري ، تهران: شركت اطلاعرساني و خدمات بورس.
9. سینایی، حسنعلی و داودی، عبدالله. ( 1388). بررسی رابطة شفاف سازی اطلاعات مالی و رفتار سرمایه گذاران در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران، تحقیقات مالی، دورة 11 ، شمارة 27 ، 43 تا 60 .
10. سيد جلال صادقي شريف، مهرداد عليپور، مرجان عروجي(1395)، آميخته بازاريابي مالي(7p) در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران، دو فصلنامة علمي پژوهشي كاوشهاي مديريت بازرگاني، سال هشتم، صص 233-283.
11. علیپور ، صادقی شریف (1389) ، بازاریابی مالی و کاربرد آن در عرصه سهام صدر اصل 44 قانون اساسی از طریق بورس اوراق بهادار تهران. پژوهشنامه علمی پژوهشی ، چشم انداز مدیریت دانشگاه شهید بهشتی ، شماره 36.
12. لاولاك، كريستوفر و رايت ، لارن، (1385)،اصو ل و مديريت بازاريابي خدمات ، ترجمه بهمن فروزنده نشر آموخته، چاپ اول، ، اصفهان.
13. نيكومرام، هاشم.، رهنماي رودپشتي، فريدون.، هيبتي، فرشاد.، يزداني، شهره. ( 1391 ). تاثير سوگيري شناختي سرمايهگذاران بورس اوراق بهادار تهران بر ارزشيابي سهام، فصلنامه علمي پژوهشي دانش ، مالي تحليل اوراق بهادار.13، 6 -81.
14. یحیی زاده فر، محمود؛ شمس، شهاب الدین و رضازاده، مرتضی ( 1389). ارزیابی عملکرد مدیریت پرتفوی شركت های سرمایه گذاری در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران، پژوهشنامة مدیریت اجرایی، سال دهم، شماره 2 (پیاپی 40) .
15. Aduda, J (2012), The Behaviour and Financial Performanceof Individual Investors in the Trading Shares of Companies Listed At the Nairobi Stock Exchange, Kenya, Journal of Finance and Investment Analysis, vol.1, no.3,:33-60
. 16. Antonios, S., V. Evangelos, & V. Patrick. (2014). Facebooks daily sentiment and international stock markets. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 107(B), 730-743
. 17. Armistead, N. (2014). Comparative analysis of individual investor portfolios based on behavioral finance and efficient market theories. North central University. ProQues
t. 18
. Baker, H. K., & Nofsinger, J. R. (2002). Psychological biases of investors. Financial Services Review, 11(2), 97-116. 19. Baker, M., & Wurgler, J. (2007). Investor sentiment and the cross-section of stock returns. Journal of Finance, 61 (4), 1645–1680.
20. Bechara, Jorge A., and Brian Knutson. (2009). Dissociable neural representations of future reward magnitude and delay during temporal discounting. NeuroImage, Vol. 45, No. 1, pp. 143-150
. 21. Bhandari, G. (2005). Incorporating cognitive support in investment DSS. Bikhchandani, S., Hirshleifer, D., & Welch, I. (1992). A theory of fads, fashion, custom, and cultural change as informational cascades. Journal of political Economy, 992-1026. 22. Bhatta, M (2009), Behavioral Finance A Discussion on Individual Investors' Biases, Management Accountant, 44(2),138-149. 23. Bottem, Neil & Mc Manus, Hohn, Competitive strategies for service organization (Macmillan press, 1999) pp.47, 49. 24. Boudaoui, A. (2011). A Study of Behavioral Finance: Background, Theories and Application. Master’s Thesis, Sao Paulo University.
25. Boussaidi R., (2013),“Representativeness Heuristic, Investor Sentiment and Overreaction to Accounting Earnings: The Case of the Tunisian Stock Market”, Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, Volume 81, Pages 9-21. 26. Broihanne, M. H., Merli, M., & Roger, P. (2014). Overconfidence, risk perception and the risk-taking behavior of finance professionals. Finance Research Letters. 11(2): 64-73. 27. Chandra, A., & Ravinder, K. (2011). Determinants of individual investor behavior: An orthogonal linear transformation approach. Jamia Millia Islamia (Central University), New Delhi. 28. Chang, C. C., Chao, C. H., & Yeh, J. H. (2016). The role of buy-side anchoring bias: Evidence from the real estate market. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 38, 34-58. 29. Chang, C. H., & Lin, S. J. (2015). The effects of national culture and behavioral pitfalls on investors' decision-making: Herding behavior in international stock markets. International Review of Economics & Finance, 37, 380-392. 30. Chang, X., L. H. K. Tam, T. J. Tan, & G. Wong. (2007). The real impact of stock market mispricing - Evidence from Australia. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 15(4), 388-408. 31. Chen, J. Y. S., Basu, S., Byzalov, D., & Naveen, L. (2013). Implications of Sticky Cost Behavior for Earnings Surprise and Market Reaction. Temple University Libraries. 32. Chen, W. J. (2013).Can Corporate Governance Mitigate the Adverse Impact of Investor Sentiment on Corporate Investment Decisions? Evidence from Taiwan. Asian Journal of Finance &Accounting, 5(2): 101-126. 33. Da Costa, Jr.; Goulart, M.; Cupertino, C.; Macedo, Jr.; Da Silva, S. (2013). “The Disposition Effect and Investor Experience”, Journal of Banking & Finance 37(5), 1669-1675. 34. Devlin, A. (2014). The Effect of Behavioral Biases on Supply Chain Decisions. 35. DeWeaver, M. A. & Shannon, R. (2010). Waning vigilance and the disposition effect: Evidence from Thailand on individual investor decision making. The Journal of Socio-Economics, 39 (1): 18-23. 36. Droms, C. M. (2009). An Investigation into Consumers' Repeated Attempts at Behavior Change. Theses and Dissertations. 37. Duclos, R. (2015). The psychology of investment behavior: biasing financial decision-making one graph at a time. Journal of Consumer Psychology. 25 (2): 317-325. 38. Dyachenko, T. L. (2014). Bayesian Analysis for Studying Consumer Behavior (Doctoral dissertation, The Ohio State University). 39. Ebert, S. (2015). On skewed risks in economic models and experiments. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 112, 85-97. 40. Fallahpour, Saeed, Abdollahi, Gholamreza (2011), "Identification and Weighting of Behavioral Bills of Investors in the Tehran Stock Exchange: AHP Fuzzy Approach", Journal of Financial Research, Vol. 13, No. 31, Spring & Summer 2011, Pages 120-99 . 41. Farlin, J. D. (2006). Antecedents and consequences of heuristic biases: Evidence from individual investors and small business owners. Touro University International. 42. Fernandes. J. L. B. (2007). Risk Taking in Financial Markets: a Behavioral Perspective. Unpublished PHD, University Carlos Madrid. 43. Frankfurter, M.G., McGounc, G.and EAllen, D.E. (2004). The Prescriptive Turn In Behavioral Finance», Journal of Socio-Economics, 33 (3), 449–468. 44. Grinblatt, M.,andHan, B. (2005).«Prospect Theory, Mental Mccounting, And Momentum», Journal o f Financial Economics,78(3),311–339. 45. Grundy, B. D., & H. Li, (2010). Investor sentiment, executive compensation, and corporate investment. Journal of Banking & Finance, 34(10), 2439-2449. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin. 2010.03.020. 46. Haj Aliyan, Mahnaz (2015), Investigating the Impact of Investors Investment Pattern on Projections of Corporate Equity Returns in Tehran Stock Exchange. University of Al-Zahra, Tehran, Master's thesis for financial management. 47. Hao, Y., Chu, H. H., Ho, K. Y., & Ko, K. C. (2016). The 52-week high and momentum in the Taiwan stock market: Anchoring or recency biases?. International Review of Economics & Finance, 43, 121-138. 48. Haugen, R. (2009). The new finance. 4th Edition. Prentice Hall Publishing. 49. Hengelbrock, J., E. Theissen, & C. Westheide. (2009). Market Response to Investor Sentiment. Available at www.ssrn.com. 50. Hon, T. Y. (2013). The Investment Behaviour of Small Investors in Stock Market: A Survey in Hong Kong. International Journal of Financial Management, 3(3), 8. 51. Howard, J. A. (2012). Behavioral Finance: Contributions of Cognitive Psychology and Neuroscience to Decision Making. Journal of Organizational Psychology, 12(2), 52-70. 52. Jones, B. (2012). Invited Editorial Comment: Behavioral Finance 2.0. The Journal of Portfolio Management, 38(4), 1-2. 53. Jung, H. W. (2012). Essays on Financial Structure, Managerial Compensation and the Product Market. ProQuest. 54. Kabiawu, O. (2014). Three essays in behavioral finance (Doctoral dissertation, RENSSELAER POLYTECHNIC INSTITUTE). 55. Kaynak,R. Sert,T. Sert,G. Akyuz,B.(2015). “Supply chain unethical behaviors and continuity of relationship: Using the PLS approach for testing moderation effects of inter-organizational justice”. Int. J. Production Economics, Vol:162,Pp: 83–91. 56. Kehiaian, S. E. (2012). Factors and behaviors that Influence Financial Literacy in U.S. Master’s Thesis, Nova Southeastern University. 57. Kengatharan, L., Kengatharan, N (2014), The Influence of Behavioral Factors in Making Investment Decisions and Performance, Asian Journal of Finance & Accounting ISSN 1946-052X 2014, Vol. 6, No. 1. 58. Kim, K. A., and Nofsinger, J. R, (2008). «Behavioral finance in Asia».Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, l6(4), 1-7. 59. kumar, a (2013), impact of behavioral finance in investment decisions and strategies a fresh approach, international journal of management resrarch and business strategy, vol. 2, no.2, 85-92. 60. Lao P., Singh H., (2011), “Herding behavior in the Chinese and Indian stock markets”, Journal of Asian Economics, Volume 22, Issue 6, Pages 495-506. 61. Li, Q., & T. Wang. (2010). Financial reporting quality and corporate investment efficiency: Chinese experience. Nankai Business Review International, 1 (2): 197-213. 62. Liston, D. (2016). Sin stock returns and investor sentiment. The QuarterlyReview of Economics and Finance, 59, 63-70. 63. Liu, F. (2014). Professional Financial Advice, Self-Control and Saving Behavior (Doctoral dissertation, The Ohio State University). 64. Liu, Y., Fan, Z., and Zhang, Y (2012), Risk decision analysis in emergency response: A method based on cumulative prospect theory, Computers & Operations Research, 10.1016/j.cor.2012.08.008, 75-82. 65. Lovric, M. (2011). Behavioral Finance and Agent-Based Artificial Markets. Unpublished PHD, University Rotterdam. 66. Martinez L.F., Zeelenberg M., Rijsman J.B., (2011), “Regret, disappointment and the endowment effect”, Journal of Economic Psychology, Volume 32, Issue 6, Pages 962-968. 67. Masonson, L.N. (2007). Behavioral Finance And Wealth Management: How to Build Optimal Portfolios That Account For Investor Biases, 26(1), 1- 57. 68. Merilkas,A. and Prasad ,D. (2003). «Factor influencing Greek investor behavior onthe Athens stock Exchange »,paper presented at the Annual meeting of Academy of Financial Services, Colorado. 69. Nelson, M., Evelyne, M. & Enrico, U.(2008) The effects of behavioral factors in investment decision-making: A survey of institutional investors. International Journal of Business and Emerging Markets. 1(1): 24-41. 70. Obamuyi, t (2013), factors influencing investment decisions in capital market: a study of individual investorsin nigeria, organizations and markets in emerging economiesvol. 4, no. 1(7), : 141-161. 71. Pinheiro-Alves, Ricardo; Zambujal-Oliveira, João. (2012). The Ease of Doing Business Index as a tool for investment location decisions, Economics Letters 117, 66–70. 72. Pompian, M. M. (2012). Behavioral finance and wealth management. How to Build Optimal Portfolios That Account for Investor Biases, New Jersey. 73. Raee, R., & Talangi, A. (2004). Advanced Investment management. Tehran: The Organization for Researching and Composing University Textbooks in the Humanities (SAMT). 74. Raei, Reza, Fallahpour, Saeed (2004), "Behavioral Finance, A Different Approach in the Financial Field", Financial Research, No. 18, 107-106 75. Rajagopalan, P., & Gurusamy, S. (2015). Behavioural Biases and Perception of Retail Investors in Stock Market-An Empirical Approach. Sumedha Journal of Management, 4(1), 113-140. 76. Reb, J., (2008), “Regret aversion and decision process quality: Effects of regret salience on decision process carefulness”, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Volume 105, Issue 2, Pages 169-182. 77. Rizzi, J.V. (2008). Behavioral basis of the financial crisis. Journal of Applied Finance. 18 ( 2): 84-96. 78. Roopadarshini, S. (2014). A Study on Implication of Behavioral Finance towards Investment Decision Making on Stock Market. Asia Pacific Journal of Management & Entrepreneurship Research, 3(1), 202. 79. Shefrin, H. (2007, June). Behavioral finance: biases, mean-variance returns, and risk premiums. In CFA Institute Conference Proceedings Quarterly (Vol. 24, No. 2, pp. 4-12). CFA Institute. 80. Shefrin, H., (2007), “Behavioral Corporate Finance: Decision that Create Value”, McGraw Hill Press. 81. Shiller, R. J. (2015). Irrational exuberance. Princeton University Press. 82. Smales Lee, A. (2014). News sentiment and the investor fear gauge. Finance Research Letters, 11(2), 122-130. 83. Suresh, A. (2013). Understanding Behavioral Finance Through Biases And Traits Of Trader Vis-À-Vis Investor. Journal of Finance, Accounting and Management, 4(2), 11-25. 84. Tauni, M. Z., Fang, H. X., & Iqbal, A. (2017). The role of financial advice and word-of-mouth communication on the association between investor personality and stock trading behavior: Evidence from Chinese stock market. Personality and Individual Differences, 108, 55-65
. 85. Thaler, R. H. (2015). Misbehaving: The Making of Behavioral Economics. WWNorton & Company. 86. Thomas, J.K. (2003). Discussion of Post-Earnings Announcement Drift and Market Participants Information Processing Biases, Review of Accounting Studies,8 ( 2), 347-353
. 87. Tuyon, J. & Ahmad Z. (2016). Behavioural finance perspectives on Malaysian stockmarket efficiency. Borsa Istanbul Review, doi: 10.1016/j. bir.2016.01.001
. 88. Uygar, U., & O. TAS, (2014). The impacts of investor sentiment on different economic sectors: Evidence from Istanbul Stock Exchange. Borsa Istanbul Review, 14(4)236-241
. 89. Vaidyan. J, K. V. (2008). Factors that enhance customer trust in e-commerce Web sites: An examination of e-commerce success metrics using Internet audience rating. ProQuest
. 90. Villegas, M., & McGivern, M. H. (2015). Codes of Ethics, Ethical Behavior, and Organizational Culture from the Managerial Approach: A Case Study in the Colombian Banking Industry. International Journal of Strategic Information Technology and Applications (IJSITA), 6(1), 42-56
. 91. Wang, X. (2014). Bounded Multiattribute Utility in Behavior Decision Research: Theory, Estimation and Experimental Tests. University of Cincinnati
. 92. Wang, Y., A. Keswani, and S. Taylor. (2015), “The Relationships Between Sentiment, Rturns and Volatility”, International Journal of Forecasting, 22, pp 109–123
. 93. Yao J., Ma C., Peng He W., (2014), “Investor herding behavior of Chinese stock market”, international Review of Economics & Finance, Volume 29, Pages 12-29
. 94. Yi-Hui,C(2013). “Using a combined AHP and PLS path modelling on blog site evaluation in Taiwan Chiang ”. Computers in Human Behavior, Vol:29, Iss:29, Pp: 1325–1333