Developing Indicators for assessing The Status of Iran’s Natural Gas Export Using Energy Demand Security Approach
Subject Areas :
Hadi
Sahebi
1
(University of Science and Technology)
pourya
souri
2
(University of Science and Technology)
Keywords: Energy demand security Natural gas Iran Quantitative indicators,
Abstract :
Iran is the second-largest proved natural gas reserve holder in the world, behind Russia and holds 17% of the world's proved natural gas reserves and more than one-third of OPEC's reserves. Iran is also among the five major producers of natural gas in the world. According to rich reserves of natural gas, high success rate of natural gas exploration, and increasing growth of fossil fuel demand in highly import dependent countries like China, India, European Union, and Turkey all of which are potential markets for Iran natural gas export, there is a promising outlook for natural gas export of Iran and growth of resultant revenue in upcoming years. but due to Iran special geopolitical position, being enclosed by two strategic resources of natural gas and crude oil, i.e. Caspian Sea and Persian Gulf, and terrorist attacks and other unrests in Middle East, Central Asia, and Caucasus, securing energy demand and increasing the volume of Iran natural gas export has turned into a critical issue. In this research, after investigating Iran’s natural gas production, reserves, and export markets, seven quantitative indicators have developed according to political, economic, and infrastructural dimensions to assess Iran’s natural gas export whether in the form of LNG or via the pipeline. Policymakers of the energy economics field can analyze Iran’s current and potential gas export markets in recent years or in the upcoming years under different scenarios by using indicators introduced in this research and collecting the required data so that they can adopt appropriate policies for enhancing the energy export demand security of Iran particularly natural gas.
[1] U.S. Energy Information Administration, “Iran international analysis,” 2015.#
[2] V. Vivoda, “Evaluating energy security in the Asia-Pacific region: A novel methodological approach,” Energy Policy, vol. 38, no. 9, pp. 5258–5263, 2010.#
[3] L. Chester, “Conceptualising energy security and making explicit its polysemic nature,” Energy Policy, vol. 38, no. 2, pp. 887–895, 2010.#
[4] A. Löschel, U. Moslener, and D. T. G. Rübbelke, “Indicators of energy security in industrialised countries,” Energy Policy, vol. 38, no. 4, pp. 1665–1671, 2010.#
[5] B. Kruyt, D. P. van Vuuren, H. J. M. De Vries, and H. Groenenberg, “Indicators for energy security,” Energy Policy, vol. 37, no. 6, pp. 2166–2181, 2009.#
[6] B. K. Sovacool, The Routledge handbook of energy security. Routledge, 2010.#
[7] C. Winzer, “Conceptualizing energy security,” Energy Policy, vol. 46, pp. 36–48, 2012.#
[8] B. W. Ang, W. L. Choong, and T. S. Ng, “Energy security: Definitions, dimensions and indexes,” Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev., vol. 42, pp. 1077–1093, 2015.#
[9] N. Intharak, J. H. Julay, S. Nakanishi, T. Matsumoto, E. J. M. Sahid, A. G. O. Aquino, and A. A. Aponte, “A quest for energy security in the 21st century,” Asia Pacific Energy Res. Cent. Rep., 2007.#
[10] C. Le Coq and E. Paltseva, “Measuring the security of external energy supply in the European Union,” Energy Policy, vol. 37, no. 11, pp. 4474–4481, 2009.#
[11] D. Streimikiene, R. Ciegis, and D. Grundey, “Energy indicators for sustainable development in Baltic States,” Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev., vol. 11, no. 5, pp. 877–893, 2007.#
[12] B. K. Sovacool, “An international assessment of energy security performance,” Ecol. Econ., vol. 88, pp. 148–158, 2013.#
[13] A. Angelis-Dimakis, G. Arampatzis, and D. Assimacopoulos, “Monitoring the sustainability of the Greek energy system,” Energy Sustain. Dev., vol. 16, no. 1, pp. 51–56, 2012.#
[14] M. Scheepers, A. Seebregts, J. de Jong, and H. Maters, “EU standards for energy security of supply,” Gas, vol. 52, no. 6, 2007.#
[15] G. Wu, L.-C. C. Liu, Z.-Y. Y. Han, and Y.-M. M. Wei, “Climate protection and China’s energy security: win–win or tradeoff,” Appl. Energy, vol. 97, pp. 157–163, 2012.#
[16] J. Greenleaf, R. Harmsen, T. Angelini, D. Green, A. Williams, O. Rix, N. Lefevre, and W. Blyth, “Analysis of impacts of climate change policies on energy security.” pp. 1–352, 2009.#
[17] E. Gupta, “Oil vulnerability index of oil-importing countries,” Energy Policy, vol. 36, no. 3, pp. 1195–1211, 2008.#
[18] V. Ş. Ediger and I. Berk, “Crude oil import policy of Turkey: Historical analysis of determinants and implications since 1968,” Energy Policy, vol. 39, no. 4, pp. 2132–2142, 2011.#
[19] H. Cabalu, “Indicators of security of natural gas supply in Asia,” Energy Policy, vol. 38, no. 1, pp. 218–225, 2010.#
[20] J. Martchamadol and S. Kumar, “The Aggregated Energy Security Performance Indicator (AESPI) at national and provincial level,” Applied Energy, vol. 127. pp. 219–238, 2014.#
[21] B. K. Sovacool, I. Mukherjee, I. M. Drupady, and A. L. D’Agostino, “Evaluating energy security performance from 1990 to 2010 for eighteen countries,” Energy, vol. 36, no. 10, pp. 5846–5853, 2011.#
[22] E. Gnansounou, “Assessing the energy vulnerability: Case of industrialised countries,” Energy Policy, vol. 36, no. 10, pp. 3734–3744, 2008.#
[23] M. E. Biresselioglu, T. Yelkenci, and I. O. Oz, “Investigating the natural gas supply security: A new perspective,” Energy, vol. 80, pp. 168–176, 2015.#
[24] M. Reymond, “Measuring vulnerability to shocks in the gas market in South America,” Energy Policy, vol. 48, pp. 754–761, 2012.#
[25] J.-B. Geng and Q. Ji, “Multi-perspective analysis of China’s energy supply security,” Energy, vol. 64, pp. 541–550, 2014.#
[26] S. Sharifuddin, “Methodology for quantitatively assessing the energy security of Malaysia and other southeast Asian countries,” Energy Policy, vol. 65, pp. 574–582, 2014.#
[27] G. Cohen, F. Joutz, and P. Loungani, “Measuring energy security: Trends in the diversification of oil and natural gas supplies,” Energy Policy, vol. 39, no. 9, pp. 4860–4869, 2011.#
[28] S. A. Dastan and O. Selcuk, “Review of the security of supply in Turkish energy markets: Lessons from the winter shortages,” Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev., vol. 59, pp. 958–971, 2016.#
[29] J. Percebois, “Energy vulnerability and its management,” Int. J. Energy Sect. Manag., vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 51–62, 2007.#
[30] م. معظمي، م. ص. جوکار و ن. مهديون، "دورنمايي تجاري شدن جهاني گاز شيل و تاثيرات استراتژيک بر امنيت تقاضاي ايران" ، کنفرانس بين المللي مديريت استراتژيک، 1392.#
[31] م. درخشان، "امنيت انرژي و تحولات آينده بازارهاي نفت و گاز"، فصلنامه راهبرد، دوره 21، شماره 64، صص 159-188، 1391.#
[32] D. R. Jalilvand, Iran’s Gas Exports: Can Past Failure Become Future Success?. Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, 2013.#