توسعه شاخص هايي براي ارزيابي وضعيت صادرات گاز طبيعي ايران با رويکرد امنيت تقاضاي انرژي
محورهای موضوعی : مدیریت استراتژیک
هادی صاحبی
1
(دانشگاه علم و صنعت ایران)
پوریا سوری
2
(دانشگاه علم و صنعت)
کلید واژه: امنیت تقاضای انرژی گاز طبیعی ایران شاخص های کمّی,
چکیده مقاله :
ايران پس از روسيه دومين کشور از لحاظ ذخاير گاز طبيعي در جهان است. 17 درصد ذخاير گاز جهان و بيش از 33 درصد ذخاير گاز کشورهاي اوپک متعلق به ايران است. ايران همچنين بين 5 کشور عمده توليدکننده گاز طبيعي قرار دارد. با توجه به ذخاير فراوان گاز طبيعي در ايران و نرخ اکتشاف بالاي منابع جديد و نيز رشد روزافزون نياز به سوختهاي فسيلي در بازارهاي به شدت وابسته به واردات گاز مانند چين، هند، اتحاديه اروپا و ترکيه که همگي از جمله بازارهاي بالقوه براي صادرات گاز ايران محسوب مي شوند؛ چشم انداز مناسبي براي صادرات گاز طبيعي ايران در سالهاي آتي و رشد درآمدهاي حاصل از آن وجود دارد. اما در سالهاي اخير به دليل موقعيت ژئوپليتيکي خاص و قرار گرفتن در مجاورت دو منبع بسيار مهم و استراتژيک تامين گاز طبيعي و نفت خام يعني خليج فارس و درياي خزر از يک سو و بروز حوادث تروريستي و ناآرامي هاي منطقه خاورميانه، آسياي مرکزي و قفقاز از سويي ديگر، مسئله تامين امنيت تقاضاي انرژي و در نتيجه افزايش صادرات آن از ايران بسيار اهميت يافته است. در اين پژوهش پس از بررسي وضعيت ايران از لحاظ توليد، ذخاير و بازارهاي صادرات گاز طبيعي، با در نظرگرفتن سه بعد اقتصادي، سياسي و زيرساختي، هفت شاخص کمّي براي ارزيابي وضيعت صادرات گاز ايران از طريق خط لوله يا از طريق ال ان جي توسعه داده مي شود. سياست گذاران و تصميم گيرندگان حوزه اقتصاد انرژي کشور مي توانند با توجه به شاخص هاي معرفي شده در اين پژوهش و با جمع آوري داده هاي مورد نياز هر شاخص، شرايط هر يک از بازارهاي فعلي و بالقوه صادرات گاز ايران را در حال حاضر يا در سالهاي آتي تحت سناريوهاي مختلف تحليل کرده و با اتخاذ سياست هاي مناسب، امنيت تقاضاي صادرات انرژي ايران خصوصا گاز را ارتقا دهند.
Iran is the second-largest proved natural gas reserve holder in the world, behind Russia and holds 17% of the world's proved natural gas reserves and more than one-third of OPEC's reserves. Iran is also among the five major producers of natural gas in the world. According to rich reserves of natural gas, high success rate of natural gas exploration, and increasing growth of fossil fuel demand in highly import dependent countries like China, India, European Union, and Turkey all of which are potential markets for Iran natural gas export, there is a promising outlook for natural gas export of Iran and growth of resultant revenue in upcoming years. but due to Iran special geopolitical position, being enclosed by two strategic resources of natural gas and crude oil, i.e. Caspian Sea and Persian Gulf, and terrorist attacks and other unrests in Middle East, Central Asia, and Caucasus, securing energy demand and increasing the volume of Iran natural gas export has turned into a critical issue. In this research, after investigating Iran’s natural gas production, reserves, and export markets, seven quantitative indicators have developed according to political, economic, and infrastructural dimensions to assess Iran’s natural gas export whether in the form of LNG or via the pipeline. Policymakers of the energy economics field can analyze Iran’s current and potential gas export markets in recent years or in the upcoming years under different scenarios by using indicators introduced in this research and collecting the required data so that they can adopt appropriate policies for enhancing the energy export demand security of Iran particularly natural gas.
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