توسعه ی یک مدل دیمتل فازی برای شناسایی عوامل کلیدی مؤثر بر پذیرش فناوری¬های مخابراتی در ایران- مورد مطالعاتی: نسل چهارم شبکه های موبایل
محورهای موضوعی : مدیریت تکنولوژیحسین سبزیان 1 , محمد علی شفیعا 2 * , مهدي غضنفري 3
1 - دانشگاه علم و صنعت ایران
2 - علم وصنعت
3 - دانشگاه علم و صنعت
کلید واژه: پذیرش و انتشار فناوری نسل چهارم (4G) فناوری تکامل بلندت مدت (LTE) منطق فازی دیمتل ,
چکیده مقاله :
به رغم سرمایه گذاری های وسیع سه اپراتور اصلی ایران یعنی همراه اول، ایرانسل و رایتل در توسعه ی فناوری تکامل بلند مدت (LTE) بعنوان مهمترین نماینده ی نسل چهارم شبکه های موبایل، تا اوایل تابستان 1396، انتشاراین فناوری با ضریب نفوذ 0.06 در کل جامعه بسیار کند بوده است . چنین وضعیتی می تواند پیامدهای نامطلوبی را برای اپراتورهای مخابراتی بهمراه داشته باشد که عمده ترین آن ها عبارتند از 1) عدم توانایی در ارایه ی شمار زیادی از خدمات باکیفیت بالا، 2) ناتوانی در رقابت با فناوری های OTT نظیر تلگرام ، 3) طولانی شدن دوره ی بازگشت سرمایه، 4) عدم یکپارچه پذیری با شبکه ی نسل پنجم و از دست دادن فرصت های اینترنت اشیاء. از اینرو، برای حل این چالش؛ برنامه ریزان اپراتورهای مخابراتی می باید عوامل کلیدی مؤثر بر پذیرش فناوری شبکه های نسل چهارم در جامعه ایرانی را شناسایی کنند که چنین شناختی مستلزم توسعه مدلی علمی است که نتها محدودیت های پژوهش های پیشین را برطرف می سازد که امکان شناخت بهتری از جامعه هدف را نیز فراهم سازد که این مقاله با توسعه یک مدل دیمتل فازی به دنبال تحقق چنین هدفی است.
Despite Iranian main operators namely MCI, Irancell and Rightel have hugely invested on deployment of Long term evolution (LTE) as the most prominent representative of 4G technology, its diffusion has been very slow with penetration rate of 0.06 at the end of spring of 2017. Such a situation incurs a number of undesirable consequences such as 1) Failure to provide a large number of high quality services, 2) Inability to compete with OTT technologies, 3) Loss of many revenue opportunities, 4) Prolongation of payback period and 5 The lack of integrability with fifth generation networks (5G) and loss of many IOT opportunities. For tackling this challenge, discussing the literature of technology adoption both generally and specifically and identifying the major limitations of these studies, a novel fuzzy DEMATEL model has been developed through which all ICT policy makers can not only get a clear knowledge of factors influencing technology adoption but also know the critical success factors (CSFs) influencing Iranians’ mindsets towards LTE adoption. Therefore, they can make effective and actionable policies to scale up LTE diffusion among Iranian people.
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