خوشه بندی فناوری های خودروی خودران با روش آینده نگاری
محورهای موضوعی : مدیریت تکنولوژی
حميد حنيفي
1
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عادل آذر
2
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منوچهر منطقی
3
1 - دكتري مديريت تكنولوژي، گروه مديريت تكنولوژي، دانشكده مديريت و اقتصاد، واحد علوم و تحقيقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامي، تهران، ايران
2 - استاد گروه مديريت صنعتي، دانشكده مديريت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه تربيت مدرس، تهران، ايران
3 - استاد، مجتمع دانشگاهی مدیریت و مهندسی صنایع، دانشگاه صنعتی مالک اشتر، تهران، ایران
کلید واژه: فناوری خودروی خودارن, آینده نگاری فناوری, تحليل اثر متقابل, میک مک,
چکیده مقاله :
هدف: تحقيقات نشان می دهد که عوامل انسانی بیش از نود درصد از تصادفات مربوط به اتومبیل را بر عهده دارند. در سالهاي اخير راه حلی پیشنهادی بشر برای حل این موضوع، استفاده از خودروهای خودران يا خودروهاي بدون راننده است. از طرفي ديگر چون اين فناوري بر عوامل اجتماعي، فرهنگي، اقتصادي، فناورانه، و محيط زيست اثرگذار است. هدف از انجام تحقيق حاضر اين است كه فناوری هاي خودروی خودران شناسایی و خوشه بندی گردد تا با تمرکز و تجزيه و تحليل اين خوشه بندي، آمادگی مناسب برای ورود و يا توسعه فناوری خودروی خودران فراهم گردد. ضرورت: منافع احتمالي نتايج تحقيق حاضر اين است كه از اين فناوري هاي خودروي خودران و همچنين دانستن اثرگذاري و اثرپذيري اين فناوري ها بر روي هم، در طراحي و توسعه اين فناوري ها در كشور ايران اقدامات مديريتي مناسب انجام داد. روش شناسی: با توجه پارادایم مسئله، متدولوژی تحقیق از نوع کیفی، و روش انجام آن از نوع آینده نگاری با نرم افزار ميك مك، و جامعه آماري پژوهش، متخصصین صنعت خودرو و صنايع مرتبط با آن بودند. نمونه بصورت غير تصادفي و قضاوتی انتخاب شدند. ابزار جمع آوری داده ها مصاحبه، و تجزیه و تحلیل داده با استفاده از نرم افزار میک مک انجام گرديد. یافتهها: يافته هاي تحقيق به اين صورت بود كه اثرگذاري و اثرپذيري فناوري هاي خودروي خودران بر يكديگر مشخص شدند. نتیجهگیری: از این نتایج مي توان از الان در تصميمات سياستگذاري و مديريتي براي طراحي، اجرا و توسعه فناوري هاي خودروي خودران استفاده نمود.
Objective: Research shows that human factors are responsible for more than ninety percent of car accidents. The solution proposed by human to solve this issue is to use autonomous vehicles. On the other hand, since this technology has an effect on social, cultural, economic, technological, and environmental factors, therefore, in this research, an attempt is made to identify and cluster autonomous vehicle technologies, so that by focusing and analyzing this clustering, provide proper preparation for the introduction or development of autonomous vehicle technologies. Methodology: According to the paradigm of the problem, which is derived from the epistemology and ontology of the present research, the research methodology is of qualitative type, and the method of doing it is of the future forsighting type with MICMAC software, and the statistical population of the research were experts in the automotive industry and related industries. The sample was selected non-randomly and judiciously. The data collection tool was interview, and data analysis was done using MICMAC software. Conclusion: The findings of the research were that the effectiveness and effectiveness of autonomous vehicle technologies on each other were determined. Originality: From now on, these results can be used in policy-making and management decisions for the design, implementation and development of autonomous vehicles technologies.
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منزوي، مسعود، آينده نگاري فناوري براي سازمان دهندگان، انتشارات موسسه آموزشي و تحقيقاتي صنايع دفاعي، 1392