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1 - The impact of demand management policies uncertainty on capital market output (A case study of Tehran Stock Exchange)

Abstract: The present study aimed to investigate the impact of demand management policies uncertainty on Tehran Stock Exchange output. The uncertainty in money supply and government expenses variables on stock exchange output has been studied using monthly data over th More

Abstract: The present study aimed to investigate the impact of demand management policies uncertainty on Tehran Stock Exchange output. The uncertainty in money supply and government expenses variables on stock exchange output has been studied using monthly data over the period of 1387-1392. The results indicated that money supply variable has the problem of uncertainty while government expenses don't. The results of MSEGARCH model on money supply variable showed that uncertainty in money supply variable in both high and low volatility has a significant negative impact on stock exchange output. The results of MS-VAR model represent the fact that government expenses have a significant impact on stock exchange index in both upswing and stagnation phases. Accordingly, it is observed that the uncertainty in demand management policies is influencing stock exchange output and these influences are in conflict with each other, so it is suggested that the government managers and policy makers (government expenses) and Central bank (money supply) implement the policies with more coordination in order to decrease the amount of these conflicting impacts. Manuscript profile
Open Access Article
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2 - The effect of oil shocks on the relationship between income - government expenditure in Iran And challenges of management and impulse control
جابر اکبری Sadegh Bakhtiari Morteza sameti Homayoun Ranjbar

Abstract Unexpected changes in oil prices on international unstable markets, impact on economic development (Due to budget dependence on oil and the high proportion of government in the economy). Financial management and economic planning in applying a policy, always More

Abstract Unexpected changes in oil prices on international unstable markets, impact on economic development (Due to budget dependence on oil and the high proportion of government in the economy). Financial management and economic planning in applying a policy, always consider other conditions constant but in action, macro-economic variables such as income and government expenditure are affected by unexpected internal and external shocks and this factor impairs economic development and the effectiveness of the policies intended are disrupted. Therefore, Iran's official policy has always been faced with the challenge of managing the oil income shocks. Considering the importance, in this study, by using models of TVP and TVPFAVAR, using software econometric MATLAB and EViews and using quarterly data over the period 1367 to 1394 has been paid to the effects of the oil shock on the relationship of income - expenditure the Iranian government. Considering that, the exchange rate is a channel for oil income to the economy, the effect of exchange rate shocks is estimated this relationship. Based on the results, oil income shocks increase the relationship of income - government spending. This means that oil shocks increase government expenditure in each period. However, the effects of increasing it during, is decreasing. Also, government spending relative to negative income shocks, was inflexible. Thus, the dependence of the budget oil revenue, through time, has not diminished. As a result, it is proposed that: managers and government policy makers, to improve the relationship between income and expenses, Avoid from policies of discretionary and temporary treatment and take action to prevent and systematic policies. Also, exchange rate shocks have caused the relationship between income and expenditure, reduced. In other words, the increase in the exchange rate through time is not a revenue source for the government to finance its expenditure. Manuscript profile

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List of Articles مخارج دولت