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No 54
Vol. 54 No. 17
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This study aims to determine stationarity or non-stationarity of time series data of consumer price index (CPI) in 1980-2012 (i.e. 1359-1391 based on Iranian calendar) time period where 2004 (i.e. 1383 Iranian calendar) is the base year. applying the appropriate methods to detect the trend of time series and determine the autoregressive, moving average and autoregressive moving average of CPI time series autoregressive, moving average and autoregressive moving average of CPI time series, we perform unit root test that results in non-stationarity of CPI time series. using the Augmented Dicky-Fuller test, it is concluded that the time series has only one unit root. therefore, an ARIMA model is developed for the time series data. using Portman-Teau test, the adequacy of the model and its pure randomness is proved. Finally, we use the proposed ARIMA model to forecast future data from 2013 to 2022 (i.e. 1392 to 1401 Iranian calendar) in 80 and 95 percent levels of confidence.
کاظمی kazemi - pourya souri - mehdi ghazanfari - mir saman pishvaee
Keywords : Time series ، Unit root test ، Stationarity ، ARIMA Model ، Forecasting
decision-making,is the most important duty of managers. In the new era , decision-making process has many difficulties and delicacies; so that decision-making without the use of new technologies and information analysis , the objectives will not be achieved as desired. Efficient management in addition to knowledge & experience management, needs to know how to use information systems. decision support system(DSS) is one of these systems that support decision-making process for managers. In this paper , at first we review the literature of decision support systems; then data mining as a tool to extract information and knowledge from organizational raw data is introduced. This extracted knowledge, may contain concepts and informations that are neglected in organization up to now, so this knowledge can help managers in Decision-making process. Eventually, The findings of this study has been used to help managers and vicars in their decisions at Iran University of Science and Technology(IUST).
Rouzbeh Ghousi - emad chizari - hani vahdani
Keywords : DSS ، Data Mining ، poll ، Iran University of Science and Technology
The main objective of this research is to develop a performance measurement system for a desired urban transportation system based on its values, mission, and vision. Based on investigating of different performance evaluation models, the performance measurement system was designed through Balanced Scorecard (BSC). Prioritization of Balanced Scorecard perspectives and indicators was also conducted using Analysis Network Process (ANP) and questionnaires collected from the expert team. Nominal group technique was used by the expert’s team to determine and confirm the results. In addition, to determine performance evaluation indicators, related literature, general policies, successful experiences and scientific breakthroughs were considered and the opinions of experts were extracted in consecutive meetings. Eventually, development of a sustainable, Justly, safe, economical, fast, and comfortable transportation system, with maximum efficiency and minimum Undesirable effects on human health and environment, were defined as the most important values, and the missions of transportation managers have defined accordingly. Training, demand management and the average level of managers’ education and experience were selected respectively as the most important evaluation criteria in urban transportation measurement.
- - Alireza Aliahmadi -
Keywords : Balanced Scorecard (BSC), ، Performance Measurement, ، Mission and Vision, ، Urban Transportation
Regarding the significance of culture and cultural and art organizations in the community cultural growth, and according to the leadership signifiacnce in the organizations, the present research is conducted to determine and rank effective leadership components in cultural and art organizations through an Iranian Islamic approach using fuzzy Delphi method. Research statistical population included managers of cultural organizations, cultural experienced management professors, as well as culture experts. 22 research samples were selected using purposeful snowball sampling method. Following literature review and research background and interviewing some experts, 22 components were identified and exposed to the experts through a questionnaire. All 22 components were verified through fuzzy Delphi method. Research results show that leadership components of insight, ethics orientation, religion orientation, tolerance, self-control, dependability, inspiring, refinement, seeking excellence, and finally growth and empowerment are ranked in order.
mohammad chakoshian - reza sepahvand - mahmoodreza esmaeili - amirhoshang nazarpoori
Keywords : Leadership ، cultural and art organizations ، Iranian Islamic approach ، fuzzy Delphi method
Understanding the characteristics of an organization during different stages of its lifecycle help us make appropriate decisions at each stage in order for solving any problem. Employing the PAEI framework proposed by Adizes, and the system dynamics approach, we have analyzed the characteristics and behavior of an organization during the go-go and adolescence stages of its lifecycle. Moreover, using the system dynamics analysis approach, we have plotted the causal feedback loops and stock-and-flow diagrams of each stage of the organizational lifecycle. Then, the output of the simulations of 100 months of the go-go and adolescence stages of the organizational lifecycle performed in the VENSIM software are obtained .Finally appropriate strategies have been proposed for tackling the problems that the organization may face in each stage of its lifecycle.
- Ramin Mowlanaour -
Keywords : Organization life cycle ، Adizes’ PAEI model ، System Dynamic ، Simulation ، Strategic management

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