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No 54
Vol. 54 No. 17
2018
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This study aims to determine stationarity or non-stationarity of time series data of consumer price index (CPI) in 1980-2012 (i.e. 1359-1391 based on Iranian calendar) time period where 2004 (i.e. 1383 Iranian calendar) is the base year. applying the appropriate methods to detect the trend of time series and determine the autoregressive, moving average and autoregressive moving average of CPI time series autoregressive, moving average and autoregressive moving average of CPI time series, we perform unit root test that results in non-stationarity of CPI time series. using the Augmented Dicky-Fuller test, it is concluded that the time series has only one unit root. therefore, an ARIMA model is developed for the time series data. using Portman-Teau test, the adequacy of the model and its pure randomness is proved. Finally, we use the proposed ARIMA model to forecast future data from 2013 to 2022 (i.e. 1392 to 1401 Iranian calendar) in 80 and 95 percent levels of confidence.
کاظمی kazemi - pourya souri - mehdi ghazanfari - mir saman pishvaee
Keywords : Time series ، Unit root test ، Stationarity ، ARIMA Model ، Forecasting
decision-making,is the most important duty of managers. In the new era , decision-making process has many difficulties and delicacies; so that decision-making without the use of new technologies and information analysis , the objectives will not be achieved as desired. Efficient management in addition to knowledge & experience management, needs to know how to use information systems. decision support system(DSS) is one of these systems that support decision-making process for managers. In this paper , at first we review the literature of decision support systems; then data mining as a tool to extract information and knowledge from organizational raw data is introduced. This extracted knowledge, may contain concepts and informations that are neglected in organization up to now, so this knowledge can help managers in Decision-making process. Eventually, The findings of this study has been used to help managers and vicars in their decisions at Iran University of Science and Technology(IUST).
Rouzbeh Ghousi - emad chizari - hani vahdani
Keywords : DSS ، Data Mining ، poll ، Iran University of Science and Technology
The presented research accomplished with the aim of investigating Job's motivation and Job's fatigue mediation role in effective external organization factors (economic, belief, cultural, political) relationship on Procrastination in Education organization. Research is application as a purpose. The method of research is description-correlation. Research's sample include 400 persons of managers, teachers and Esfahan's Education administrative experts that selected with using formula (1977) and with sampling method proportion to volume. Participants in this research respond to realized questionnaire of effective factors on Procrastination in organization (1395), Right's Job's motivation standard questionnaires (2004), Safariniya and Razlighi organizational Procrastination (1390) and Maslash and Jakson's job fatigue questionnaire (1985). Questionnaire's validity approved with using content validity and their stability confirmed with Cronbach Alpha. Recommended pattern evaluation and testing mediation effect performed through patterning of structural equations analysis, Soble test and regression. Research's results were indicative of recommended pattern fitting and conformity with real (true) data. Confirmed model show that external organizational factors, Job's motivation and Job's fatigue have a significance relationship with Procrastination, also the role of job's motivation and job's fatigue mediation are confirmed in relationship among external organizational factors (economic, belief, cultural and political) with negligence in organization. Based on achieved results (findings), It is recommended that in order to reduce Procrastination in organization and prevention from Job's fatigue, managers scheduling are designed and performed upon staff's job's motivation.
bahram afshari - Syed Ali Siadat - hosseinali mehrabi kooshki
Keywords : Procrastination in management ، , Job's motivation, ، Job's fatigue, ، External organizational
The main objective of this research is to develop a performance measurement system for a desired urban transportation system based on its values, mission, and vision. Based on investigating of different performance evaluation models, the performance measurement system was designed through Balanced Scorecard (BSC). Prioritization of Balanced Scorecard perspectives and indicators was also conducted using Analysis Network Process (ANP) and questionnaires collected from the expert team. Nominal group technique was used by the expert’s team to determine and confirm the results. In addition, to determine performance evaluation indicators, related literature, general policies, successful experiences and scientific breakthroughs were considered and the opinions of experts were extracted in consecutive meetings. Eventually, development of a sustainable, Justly, safe, economical, fast, and comfortable transportation system, with maximum efficiency and minimum Undesirable effects on human health and environment, were defined as the most important values, and the missions of transportation managers have defined accordingly. Training, demand management and the average level of managers’ education and experience were selected respectively as the most important evaluation criteria in urban transportation measurement.
- - Alireza Aliahmadi -
Keywords : Balanced Scorecard (BSC), ، Performance Measurement, ، Mission and Vision, ، Urban Transportation
Understanding the characteristics of an organization during different stages of its lifecycle help us make appropriate decisions at each stage in order for solving any problem. Employing the PAEI framework proposed by Adizes, and the system dynamics approach, we have analyzed the characteristics and behavior of an organization during the go-go and adolescence stages of its lifecycle. Moreover, using the system dynamics analysis approach, we have plotted the causal feedback loops and stock-and-flow diagrams of each stage of the organizational lifecycle. Then, the output of the simulations of 100 months of the go-go and adolescence stages of the organizational lifecycle performed in the VENSIM software are obtained .Finally appropriate strategies have been proposed for tackling the problems that the organization may face in each stage of its lifecycle.
- Ramin Mowlanaour -
Keywords : Organization life cycle ، Adizes’ PAEI model ، System Dynamic ، Simulation ، Strategic management

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